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diff --git a/rich/31_public_opinion b/rich/31_public_opinion new file mode 100644 index 0000000..cd803ae --- /dev/null +++ b/rich/31_public_opinion @@ -0,0 +1,94 @@ +Public Opinion: The People's Influence on Policy + +What is public opinion? +- The aggregate beliefs and attitudes of some portion of adults (ex. + all voters, white voters, swing voters, suburban voters) + - Pretty much a political science metric +- Expressed opinion differs from "real opinion" + - People lie about their preferenc + - Sometimes people don't even know until the day of! +- The first poll was 1824 + - "Straw polls" - unscientific and unrepresentative + - Pretty private, but only tells you the average belief of + whomever took the poll; ex. twitter polls + - Literary Digest 1916-1916 + - 100% accurate up until 1936, when predicted Alf Landon + - Big selection bias: the only people who could buy the + mag were rich and Republican. + - Each election, pollsters modify polls on possible selection bias. + +- We are measuring "Political Socialization" + - Socialization: the process by which individuals acquire beliefs + and attitudes +Sources of Socialization +1) Family +- Most significant influence because you're "trapped" here as a kid + - By five years old, kids have political leanings + - People share opinions + - Children imitate their parents + - Personality + - Not necessarily specific policy, but values and norms + - You inherit social and economic networks from your parents + - Positive perception -> more imitation. Worse home environment -> + less inheritance of ideas + - Your ideas are not immutable of your parents +2) Education + - Your first influence outside the home + - Promote patriotic rituals + - Pledge of allegiance + - School clubs and democracy (ex Illinois had students choose + state bird) + - Textbooks promote the status quo ("neutral") + - Academia's Liberal (anti-status quo) Influence + - This is only higher education, after you have been exposed to + the status quo, and it's largely overblown + - Students reflect popular opinion + - Still some parental control, like private school +3) Peers and peer groups + - Who is "like you" + - Dr Rich, ex, has his local peer group, his work peer group, which + doesn't care much about student debt because that doesn't affect + his peers. + - Reinforces existing beliefs, making it harder to leave +4) Religious influences + - Less influential at large, but those with these beliefs are super + impacted by this + - Political scientists measure religiosity in terms of church + attendance frequency +5) Economic status/occupation + - Political analysis, national security, ex. have a right-center + bias + - Taxes are supported by government employees, disliked by other ppl + - More money typically -> more conservative +6) Political Events + - Sep 11 and the War on Terror + - Maybe support for popular vote +7) Leaders + - Formal leaders have a (small) impact, like press releases or news + - Rich's college roommate had a poster of Reagan. + - Trump's got a big positive/negative impact + - Informal (mostly community) leaders have a bigger impact: trust, + commitment, proximity +8) Media + - The more sources, the less bias + - We stick with the stuff we like + - Low on this list because it is very low impact. +9) Demographic traits + - Minor impact + - However, it is a pretty good metric for communities that have + similar beliefs and bigger analysis +10) Gender gap + - Women are more left-leaning + - Possibly a bit biological + - But there's a lot of socialized ideological differences that are + largely captured by other social variables + +- George Gallop, early scientific political pollster + - 4 or 5 percentage points off an election prediction + - Believed polling enhances the democratic process + - Brings people back into the process + 1 Year-round, even outside of election years (for politicians) + 2 Polling weakens the power of interest groups + 3 Indicates broad preferences, which initiate policies + - Like George W Bush proposing to privatize Social Security + 4 Feedback on policy choices |