diff options
Diffstat (limited to 'zhilova/04_events')
-rw-r--r-- | zhilova/04_events | 89 |
1 files changed, 89 insertions, 0 deletions
diff --git a/zhilova/04_events b/zhilova/04_events new file mode 100644 index 0000000..551d4cc --- /dev/null +++ b/zhilova/04_events @@ -0,0 +1,89 @@ +Bayes' Theorem is useful for determining something like ``how likely is +XYZ to have disease A if they pass test B?'' because it lets us convert +coditionals in the other direction (e.g. test given disease). + + Independent Random Events +(C, \bb B, P) is a probability space +With A, B \in \bb B and A, B \subseteq C, they are independent iff +P(A\cap B) = P(A)P(B). + +A group of events Ai, ... An in \bb B is + +(1) pairwise independent iff P(A_i \cap A_j) = P(A_i)P(A_j) (i \neq j). + +(2) triplewise independent iff P(A_i \cap A_j \cap A_k) = +P(A_i)P(A_j)P(A_k) (i \neq j \neq k \neq i). + +(3) mutually independent iff for all subsets C of {A1, ..., An}, +P(intersection of C) = product of all P(A) where A in C. + +3 implies 2 and 1, but 2 doesn't imply 1. + +Independence can also be defined equivalently as: +P(A | C) = P(A) + +A,B are conditionally independent if P(A\cap B | C) = P(A|C)P(B|C) + + Random Variables + +[What lol] + +X = X(w) : C \mapsto D where D is the range of X. + +Inverse functions can exist, I guess. + +P_X(A) = P({all w : X(w) in A}) + +Key Properties + +1) P_X(A) is a probability set function on D. +2) P_X(A) \geq 0 +3) P_x(D) = 1 +4) P_x(empty) = 0 +5+ P_x=(A) = 1 - P_x(D \setminus A) +6,7) monotonicity, sigma-additivitiy. + + Discrete r.v. have countable domain. +Ex: Binomial r.v. + +X ~ Binomial(n, p) +n in N, p in (0,1) + +D = {0, 1, ... n} + +P(X = x) = (n choose x)p^x(1-p)^{n-x} + +X ~ Poisson(\lambda) + +D = N^+. + +P(X = x) = \lambda^x e^{-\lambda}/x! + + Probability Mass Function (pmf) + +For r.v. with countable domain D, + +P_X(x) := P(X = x) (if x \in D, 0 otherwise) + +Properties of P_X(x), x \in D: + (Correspond directly to probability set function properties) + +1) Typically, P_X(x) > 0 forall x \in D. >= 0 also acceptable. + +2) sum over all x of D P_x(x) gives 1. + +3) {X in A} equivalent to {w in C : X(w) in A} + + r.v. of continuous type +Ex: Let X uniformly take values in [0, 1]. +P(X in (a, b]) = b - a. 0 \leq a < b \leq 1. + + Cumulative distribution type +Defined for discrete and continuous type r.v. + +F_X(x) := P(X \leq x). + +F_X : R -> [0,1] [couldn't it be from any ordered domain?] +1) 0 \leq F_X \leq 1 +2) non-decreasing +3) right-continuous |