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@@ -44,11 +44,82 @@ Are parties still doing this effectively?
All parties can be broken down into three components:
1) Electorate
- Core groups (base)
+ - Essentially a guaranteed vote, so turnout is the main focus in
+ these demographics
+ - Campaigning to the other party's core groups is mostly
+ unnecessary
- Independents
+ - Ex: women voters
+ - Campaigning on women's issues can sway 4--9 pts in this group.
+ - "Why elections are won or lost"
- Loose affiliates (usually candidate-specific)
+ - Difficult to campaign to or motivate these groups
+ - Strategizing on these groups is hard
+ - Ex: anti-Trump voters, Barack Obama voters.
-2) Organization
- -
+2) Party Organization
+ - Not organized hierarchically: national gov differs significantly
+ from local gov and voters and the party orgs
+ - It's more confederate: people organize loosely and give power to
+ the party limitedly
+ - National tends to be voters' focus (healthcare, nat. defense), but
+ local, like potholes, schools have diff. policies than nat. Dems.
+ - Party Presence is not a constant or constant polices
+ - The party has the "umbrella" and its constituent parts are
+ trying to fit into policy as they can, but not everything gets
+ through.
+ - Ex: high-income + low-education in Republican party
3) Party in government; crosses over with organization
+ - Majority does not ensure power, especially not absolute power.
+ - Supermajorities with united gov (pres, house, senate) is the only
+ thing that gives one party the power.
+ - Ticket splitting: vote for Biden but David Perdue.
+ - Because of weaker parties
+Two Major Parties
+- Unlike most countries, broad bases with poor assurances for the
+ parties
+- The Democratic Party
+ - Minorities
+ - Labor
+ - Women
+- The Republican Party
+ - High Income
+ - College graduates (changing?)
+ - Business
+ - Religion? (depends)
+ - Religiosity, evangelicals like Reps
+Why has the system endured?
+ - US Exceptionalism and Institutions
+ - For only 28 years did the US not have a two-party system
+ 1. Duality (US exceptionalism)
+ - Pro-choice or pro-life
+ - Pro-gun or pro-gun control
+ 2. Political socialization
+ - "Two is all you need"
+ - Issues are presented as two choices rather than nuanced
+ problems
+ 3. Political culture
+ - Three distinct political cultures
+ - The cultures lean in one direction or another.
+ - Can be handled by two parties
+ 4. State and Federal Laws
+ - Written by the two parties
+ - Handle more than 2 parties poorly
+ 5. Winner-take-all electoral system
+ - Duverger's law: how many winners? One -> two parties
+ - District design, and even local elections have one winner per
+ district
+Role of minor parties in the US?
+ - Most countries' minor parties caucus with other parties.
+ - They do *ocassionally* have an impact
+ - 1992 Perot - 19% of popular vote but 0 electoral votes. Cost HW
+ Bush the election. 1996 8.5%
+ - Clinton was elected, setting the stage for Obama
+ - Don't need a large % to make a difference. See 2016
+ - Historically important 3rd parties
+ - Communist (Dem)
+ - Green (Dem)
+ - Bull-Moose Progressives (Rep)
+ - Reform Party (mix of both)