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+Public Opinion: The People's Influence on Policy
+
+What is public opinion?
+- The aggregate beliefs and attitudes of some portion of adults (ex.
+ all voters, white voters, swing voters, suburban voters)
+ - Pretty much a political science metric
+- Expressed opinion differs from "real opinion"
+ - People lie about their preferenc
+ - Sometimes people don't even know until the day of!
+- The first poll was 1824
+ - "Straw polls" - unscientific and unrepresentative
+ - Pretty private, but only tells you the average belief of
+ whomever took the poll; ex. twitter polls
+ - Literary Digest 1916-1916
+ - 100% accurate up until 1936, when predicted Alf Landon
+ - Big selection bias: the only people who could buy the
+ mag were rich and Republican.
+ - Each election, pollsters modify polls on possible selection bias.
+
+- We are measuring "Political Socialization"
+ - Socialization: the process by which individuals acquire beliefs
+ and attitudes
+Sources of Socialization
+1) Family
+- Most significant influence because you're "trapped" here as a kid
+ - By five years old, kids have political leanings
+ - People share opinions
+ - Children imitate their parents
+ - Personality
+ - Not necessarily specific policy, but values and norms
+ - You inherit social and economic networks from your parents
+ - Positive perception -> more imitation. Worse home environment ->
+ less inheritance of ideas
+ - Your ideas are not immutable of your parents
+2) Education
+ - Your first influence outside the home
+ - Promote patriotic rituals
+ - Pledge of allegiance
+ - School clubs and democracy (ex Illinois had students choose
+ state bird)
+ - Textbooks promote the status quo ("neutral")
+ - Academia's Liberal (anti-status quo) Influence
+ - This is only higher education, after you have been exposed to
+ the status quo, and it's largely overblown
+ - Students reflect popular opinion
+ - Still some parental control, like private school
+3) Peers and peer groups
+ - Who is "like you"
+ - Dr Rich, ex, has his local peer group, his work peer group, which
+ doesn't care much about student debt because that doesn't affect
+ his peers.
+ - Reinforces existing beliefs, making it harder to leave
+4) Religious influences
+ - Less influential at large, but those with these beliefs are super
+ impacted by this
+ - Political scientists measure religiosity in terms of church
+ attendance frequency
+5) Economic status/occupation
+ - Political analysis, national security, ex. have a right-center
+ bias
+ - Taxes are supported by government employees, disliked by other ppl
+ - More money typically -> more conservative
+6) Political Events
+ - Sep 11 and the War on Terror
+ - Maybe support for popular vote
+7) Leaders
+ - Formal leaders have a (small) impact, like press releases or news
+ - Rich's college roommate had a poster of Reagan.
+ - Trump's got a big positive/negative impact
+ - Informal (mostly community) leaders have a bigger impact: trust,
+ commitment, proximity
+8) Media
+ - The more sources, the less bias
+ - We stick with the stuff we like
+ - Low on this list because it is very low impact.
+9) Demographic traits
+ - Minor impact
+ - However, it is a pretty good metric for communities that have
+ similar beliefs and bigger analysis
+10) Gender gap
+ - Women are more left-leaning
+ - Possibly a bit biological
+ - But there's a lot of socialized ideological differences that are
+ largely captured by other social variables
+
+- George Gallop, early scientific political pollster
+ - 4 or 5 percentage points off an election prediction
+ - Believed polling enhances the democratic process
+ - Brings people back into the process
+ 1 Year-round, even outside of election years (for politicians)
+ 2 Polling weakens the power of interest groups
+ 3 Indicates broad preferences, which initiate policies
+ - Like George W Bush proposing to privatize Social Security
+ 4 Feedback on policy choices