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authorHolden Rohrer <hr@hrhr.dev>2021-08-31 17:06:06 -0400
committerHolden Rohrer <hr@hrhr.dev>2021-08-31 17:06:06 -0400
commit1e3c434c8b108a5abd9f6810d629c3ae83face98 (patch)
tree8beb1f8971653132970a84c254bf8814e1b4d489 /zhilova/03_probability_function
parenta3fb090ff96fc67ee054b15da005126ef578894c (diff)
added notes for math classes and the first non-computing homework
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+ The Probability Set Function
+
+P: B -> R
+
+B is a sigma-algebra on C.
+
+Properties:
+P(A) >= 0 \forall A in B
+P(C) = 1
+\forall A1, A2, A3, ... in B, if A_i \cap A_j = \empty,
+P(infinite union of A1, A2, ...) = sum over all j of P(A_j)
+
+Useful inequalities:
+Boole's inequality (th 1.3.7) P(union of A1, A2, ...) = P(A1) + P(A2) + ...
+(Derives from the inclusion-exclusion formula)
+
+ Conditional Probability
+
+Let A, B be sets in \B (Borel Algebra)
+Assume P(B) > 0 [because it wouldn't make sense to condition on an
+impossible event]
+
+P(A | B) = P(A \cap B) / P(B)
+
+P(* | B) : B -> R [that's a new notation]
+
+Gives similar properties to the main probability function because it is
+a probability set function.
+
+P(A | B) >= 0
+P(C | B) = 1 [and P(B | B) = 1 ]
+P(* | B) is z-additive
+
+Sometimes, it's simpler to define P(A \cap B) = P(A | B) * P(B) like in
+a Markov chain.
+P(A \cap B_1 \cap B_2) = P(A | B_1 \cap B_2)P(B_1 | B_2)P(B_2).
+ Trivially proved by induction.
+
+The law of total probability.
+
+Consider B_1, B_2, ... in B such that any B_i, B_j are disjoint and the
+union of all B_1 to B_\infty = C.
+
+If P(B_i) > 0, P(A) = \sum^infty P(A | B_i) * P(B_i)
+
+ Proof
+
+For any i >= 1,
+P(A | B_i) * P(B_i) = P(A \cap B_i) [basic property of conditionals]
+A = A \cap C = A \cap (countable union of B_i) = (countable union of A
+\cap B_i).
+\to P(A) = P(countable union of A \cap B_i)
+\to P(A) = (countable sum of P(A | B_i)*P(B_i))
+
+ Bayes' Theorem
+P(B_i | A) = P(A | B_i) * P(B_i) / (sum over all B_j P(A | B_j)*P(B_j))
+
+Applies the law of total probability and the definition of conditional
+probability.